Earthquake prediction method: watch earthquake map clock; earthquake sequence along fault lines

74

By claudiafox

Snapshot of daily Earthquake sequence map for 30 days 18 January, 2012

Animation for last 30 days: The circles show quake sizes and times. Red means "today", orange, "yesterday" and yellow, "past two weeks". Purple traces; "past five years".
See all 6 photos
Animation for last 30 days: The circles show quake sizes and times. Red means "today", orange, "yesterday" and yellow, "past two weeks". Purple traces; "past five years".

Snapshot of earthquake flows for 30 days to 26 January 2012

Click link at item 1 to the left. Wait for it to load. Also  If you click on the map if gives you the regions.
Click link at item 1 to the left. Wait for it to load. Also If you click on the map if gives you the regions.

Get earthquake lists related to map: Last 2 Weeks of Earthquakes (within 10 degrees of LON=165.724, LAT=-46.676)

This animation uses US Geological Services earthquake catalogues and Google Earth.
This animation uses US Geological Services earthquake catalogues and Google Earth.

I decided to look at patterns of the sequence or "flow", of bigger earthquakes.

This hub contains links to three animations.
To make it clearer, I've made a list of links to the three earthquake animations talked about in this Hub. To find the animations:

  • Click on three blue links, below to go straight to the animations, or
  • go the same links, in the text below, as you read the Hub.
  1. Iris animation using USGS catalogue; Note this is sometimes slow. Try again later.
  2. USGS animation using same data from USGS catalogue; (click 'start animation" at top left)
  3. ten year animation of 2. above; Very fast; one second a week. Animates automatically.

Facts: it's indisputable - earthquakes tend to flow in sequences around the Pacific Basin clockwise or anti clockwise directions. Earthquake flows change direction.
So the animations here appear to show earthquakes as non-random and often sequential
Look at the three animations linked on this hub: The earthquake rotation direction changes.
For example around each 26 December, (19 - 28 December, for ten years, 2000 to 2011, earthquakes rotated generally. anticlockwise around the Pacific Basin.

  1. See if its clockwise or anticlockwise at this time, click here for this last 30 days of earthquake worldwide animation. (Note, if you blow it up full screen, the animation turns into a freeze-frame.
  2. For another version of the same type of earthquake animation, click here.
  3. Below, you will find a link for an animation of earthquakes over ten years. Its a speeded-up version of 1., above,

See the earthquakes whirl: ( Note these Iris animations do not always seem to operate. This may reflect overload or other technical reason, so try again later). Also Iris for a while, published an animation which allowed viewing of sequence, by date. This has been moved or removed and I now can't find it to link it here for you,
See bigger earthquakes "flow" in one direction or the other; over time. And also - what's surprising - is recurrent dates for some earthquakes.
Take Ecuador, for example; giant earthquakes happen on the coastal border between Ecuador and Colombia, and when they do, over the past 100 years or so, they happen in these times:

  1. in the first two weeks of August; or
  2. between last week of Jan and first week of March;
  3. the last one, was August 2010.

Depending on the earthquake rotation patterns above - when the earthquake clock flow goes backwards ( anti-clockwise), then - its logical - California earthquakes can follow Ecuador earthquakes (and did so in 1906) the State of California has set a high alert right now.

Make yourself really giddy: try this ten-year earthquake animation

Again, see the super-cycle flow. Ten years of earthquakes in weekly ticks. Created by Brian Davies, who has speeded the US Government data up into a ten-year set at one week a second. It sure shows more big earthquakes as it gets closer to 201
Again, see the super-cycle flow. Ten years of earthquakes in weekly ticks. Created by Brian Davies, who has speeded the US Government data up into a ten-year set at one week a second. It sure shows more big earthquakes as it gets closer to 201
Source: Click item 2 link above. Wait for it to load

Earthquake precursor investigation reference

Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes
Amazon Price: $138.13
List Price: $179.00
Earthquake Precursors (Advances in Earth and Planetary Sciences)
Amazon Price: $138.57
List Price: $155.00

Above to see earthquake sequences repeated at high speed over ten years, click link below. Also shows night shadow

Weekly sequences:This fast weekly animation - presented on the site of Brian Davis - but sourced from Iris and UCGS - moves super fast - it allocates one second per week for ten years.
How the years whirl by: It made me feel bit giddy - but watch it a few times, as I did, and you will see at different times of year (or different years more research needed on that) - the earthquakes move in sequences, in the same direction.
Taiwan - Japan: See Taiwan - Japan flows, for example. Some times those directions change.
Indonesia: Earthquake flow goes sometimes clockwise and sometimes anti-clockwise. Click here


Where not to build an LNG plant or plan a large city

Esmareldas Ecuador -
Esmeraldas, Ecuador
[get directions]

Giant earthquakes happen here; and when they do, they happen in the first two weeks of August, or between last week of Jan and first week of March.

Anti clockwise rotation of earthquakes around the Pacific Basin

In this 9th hub of ten on the topic, earthquake prediction, I look at more bits of the puzzle.

I ask the question;

  1. do large earthquakes happen in sequences, in time and location? and,
  • can an earthquake at one place and date;
  • predict a risk of an earthquake at another place and date?
  • why do earthquakes form clockwise rotation of earthquakes around the Pacific Basin around the time of 26 December?
  • noting this is the time of the Solstice.

Here's an example earthquakes moved anticlockwise every 26 December, for ten years: I see this pattern repeats - anti-clockwise rotation of earthquakes around the Pacific Basin.

These start from South of New Zealand, in the 26 December period. I have only investigated the 26 December period. The quakes a ten day period centered on 26 December follow a sequence obvious to any observer with time to rummage the Internet; for example, I was surprised. I found:

  1. in each of the ten days, centered on 26 December, over the last 10 years;
  2. earthquakes start to pop at the south of New Zealand; then
  3. "flow" North 'up', along the 'top' edge of the Indo-Australian Plate boundary;
  4. (the east coast of North Island is the eastern edge of Indo-Australian Plate);
  5. earthquakes may happen as the movement meets the Himalayan plate:
  6. that is, the opposite sides of the Indo-Australian Plate; and
  7. New Zealand represents a sort of pivot point in the plates.

I hope someone else out there has the skills to take the next step and investigate these patterns, and check them against this Moon-Sun earthquake trigger data here.
26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake: Before the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (when 280,000 deaths were recorded in fourteen countries); three days before - an earthquake struck - a big one - a magnitude 8.1, west of New Zealand.


Another earthquake animation; same data, different authors

Seven day animation. Snap shot 7 days ending 05:00 UTC
Seven day animation. Snap shot 7 days ending 05:00 UTC
Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsanim/world/

in general, larger earthquakes follow sequences

Earthquake clocks: Clocks tick once a second. It's reliable.
But do earthquakes also, "tick", in very slow clock?
See the ticks. Click here
The official word - 'earthquakes come at random times'. That's clearly not so.
Big earthquakes appear come in groups: Take these three giant earthquakes of 1906.
The three destroyed communities, in sequence;

  1. January, April and August the Colombia-Ecuador region;
  2. San Francisco in April, and
  3. then (after a full anti-clockwise rotation), August in Valparaiso, Chile

Obvious and odd facts: New internet tools, models and animated maps show you big earthquakes do happen in sequences, both in time and location.

These sequences, may move:

  • clockwise around the Pacific rim;
  • anticlockwise around the Pacific rim;
  • and rock backwards and forwards along one zone

Look closer, and Japan - big earthquakes and volcanoes - over very long periods, appear:

  1. in lines, all at the same angle;
  2. these form lines of earthquakes - all inclined to the same degree;
  3. the earthquake-volcano "lines" move to the east over time
  4. the earthquake lines retain the same angle. More on this later.

Seismic history in New Zealand

Intraplate Volcanism: In Eastern Australia and New Zealand
Amazon Price: $56.24
List Price: $65.00

What creates the earthquake sequences?

Blowing in the wind: These patterns - when speeded-up look like the wind has blown them - or that some force, drives them. This makes sense. Viewed from the north pole, the earth rotates anticlockwise. So all western coasts tend to get windier weather as the anticlockwise rotation of the Earth creates a westerly wind. Earthquakes appear to relate to the clocks - and wheels within wheels - of the planetary system; Earth, Moon, Sun, planets.

Horologium Achaz Hydrographicum. Seriously. I put it here because the lines marked look like earthquake tracks.

Completely unreasonable for me to add this here but this weird ancient object lives in a  cabinet in the American Philosophical Society; The curators call it the Schissler dial—Christopher Schissler being the name of craftsman whose foundry made it.
Completely unreasonable for me to add this here but this weird ancient object lives in a cabinet in the American Philosophical Society; The curators call it the Schissler dial—Christopher Schissler being the name of craftsman whose foundry made it.

The Giant Tohuku Earthquake and Tsunami

2:46: Aftershocks: Stories from the Japan Earthquake
Amazon Price: $9.36
List Price: $11.99

Related earthquake prediction hubs

Earthquake patterns check for yourself

What if the movement of the Sun relates to earthquakes? That's a big question. Sunspots correlate with earthquakes. The above are not earthquake sequences; but tracks of the shadow of the Sun. Why do these tracks have the same 'look", and angle of earthquake sequences? That's an unanswered question.
The investigation continues:
This hub shows you sequences you can check for yourself. In this I have simply used public data available.
For example on coast of Americas, the whole the Pacific Rim appears to move to the North; the average movement, 5cm a year.
Yet the America's coast earthquake-flow sometimes follows the opposite direction. This appears to change over longish periods; ( see 10 year animation) and flow variously clockwise or anticlockwise.
Possibility earthquake sequence patterns change by time of the year: I saw a pattern worth of investigating why large earthquakes happen on 26 December, after the northern Solstice and the "stand still" of the Sun.

I looked at the sequences of

  1. earthquakes above 6;
  2. no more than 70km down; and
  3. between the days of 18 December and 29 December
  4. in all years from from 2000 to 2011.

I set these limits to see quakes with the more damaging effects. Shallower earthquakes cause more damage than deeper earthquakes, and earthquakes above 6 are relatively large.

I looked at the period 19 December to 28 December for 10 successive years from 2000 to 2011.
Clockwise Pacific Rim earthquake-flow at Northern Solstice: In the 10 day period, for 26 December, to my eye - a clockwise pattern was clear for each year.

I saw some smaller variations for the Northern Solstice period

  1. Indonesia - Solomon Islands quake sequence sometimes reversed;
    Some earthquakes repetitively happened near the same times, at distant locations;
    Tonga appeared to act as the "center" of the earthquake clock;
    Some earthquakes happened sequentially - from 25 past to 10 to the earthquake clock hour - that is, diagonally across the basin, in sequence.

The general sequence;

  1. New Zealand
  2. Solomons islands
  3. Indonesia
  4. Japan
  5. Alaska
  6. California
  7. Mexico
  8. Southern Latin America

I looked for scientific data and found a paper by Prof. D. Turcotte of Cornell University. Application of Dynamical Systems to Earthquake Prediction.
1950 - 1960s earthquake clock: It is shown that siesmicity on the Pacific Rim during 1950 - 1960s started in the Tonga-New Guinea regions, migrated clockwise along the Pacific Rim with a mean velocity about 2000 km/yr and culminated in the 1960 Chile earthquake. The migration is statistically significant.
One theory was the whole basin was rotating anticlockwise:

Tams R profile image

Tams R Level 5 Commenter 3 months ago

Wow! Extremely interesting hub and full of unique information. I'll be interested in watching your future writings on Earthquakes. They interest me for many reasons, but one I have written about. Thanks for sharing.

claudiafox profile image

claudiafox Hub Author 4 months ago

Especially if you live in California! I expect some bigger earthquakes in the next few days. Perhaps near you; Caribbean, Mexico, maybe Ecuador. If there is one in Ecuador, that raises California risk, in my view. End of January appears as a high risk repeat time for Ecuador events.

K9keystrokes profile image

K9keystrokes Level 7 Commenter 4 months ago

Earthquakes are a very scary thing. I'm a California girl, so I try to keep up on as much quake info as I can find. You provide a good amount of info here without a doubt! Nice job.

Cheers~

K9

claudiafox profile image

claudiafox Hub Author 4 months ago

Thanks happyturtle for the comment.

I have now put the three animation links at the top of the Hub to make it easier to use. let me know if it works for you now.

happyturtle profile image

happyturtle Level 2 Commenter 4 months ago

I've never heard or considered this before. I've Google'd for those animations as they don't seem to be working for me on this article.

Very Interesting.

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