Earthquake prediction, CMEs, aurora, the Solstice: cascade catastrophe risks if GPS, gas, water, electricity grids fail

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By claudiafox

The cascade effect of a big spaceweather event

After a big space weather event, GPS systems may go haywire; planes land in the wrong place, oil rigs miss underground oil and gas pipe connections. Endless catastrophic possibilities exist. And may cascade. See above,
See all 4 photos
After a big space weather event, GPS systems may go haywire; planes land in the wrong place, oil rigs miss underground oil and gas pipe connections. Endless catastrophic possibilities exist. And may cascade. See above,

This CME missed the Earth

This  X1.7 flare (largest category) and a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the other side of the Sun (Jan. 27-28, 2012) made a minor radiation storm on Earth, and auroas
This X1.7 flare (largest category) and a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the other side of the Sun (Jan. 27-28, 2012) made a minor radiation storm on Earth, and auroas
Source: SOHO

Welcome to sunspot season. This happens every 11 years

What a wonderful world we live in: CMEs form phenomenal events and create amazing effects on the Earth, such as auroras. The data also shows earthquakes may follow CMEs.
Explanations and speculation:
See the videos here.

Global space storm forecasts

Events on the Sun create auroras and may create earthquakes, too

We call surges in the Earth's magnetosphere, space weather.
Most space weather reports measure the Sun, Sunspots and exploding Sunspots called Coronal Mass Ejections - CMEs.
They can travel at about one million miles per hour.
CMEs appear before some big earthquakes:
CMEs are plasma - big clouds of charged particles. Plasma comes from 'boiling" on the Sun. Solar flares or coronal mass ejections.
These balloons - a CME loop - of solar wind, rise above the solar corona, like huge bubbles, expanding as they climb.
They appear in 11 - year cycles, from the surface of the Sun.
If CMEs - Sun-bubbles burst , they explode into:

  1. a surge of super-hot solar plasma - at tens of millions of degrees:
  2. as a soup of high-pressure electrons, protons, and heavy nuclei;
  3. the burst moves in a spiral, at the speed of light;
  4. the plasma-burst travels along the solar wind and magnetic lines of force;
  5. creates auroras in Earth's polar regions;
  6. large earthquakes may also then follow; (but more factors apply, like the angle of the Earth the time).

A big bang: As the energy of these events can get as big as one billiion nuclear bombs, and produces pressure and magnetic changes on the Earth, connection with earthquakes, volcanoes and Earth-weather seems worth consideration.
CMEs create auroras
: Very big CMEs create very big auroras over a large area. After a big CEM, auroras expand from the poles, towards the equator:
For example December 14, 1862 - The Civil War Aurora: This aurora was seen by Civil War soldiers in Fredericksberg Virginia. According to a letter by Milo Grow "There was a brilliant exhibition of Aurora Borealis soon after dark last night. For half an hour it shows very brilliantly reaching to the mid heavens in colors of yellow and red".

Auroa created by first of two January 2012 CMEs. This one seen from Finland

This is a movie of the aurora australis (southern lights) taken by NASA's IMAGE satellite, abou tthe same time as the Aurora above on the opposite, Northern pole, below. This aurora followed a sun-burst; a CME.

Current Spaceweather Technical Reports

Short video of a Southern Aurora captured by satellites

Spaceweather warnings

The Sun rotates and the Sunspots rotate with the Sun and so its possible to make some kind of guesstimate of spaceweather earth-impact timing
The Sun rotates and the Sunspots rotate with the Sun and so its possible to make some kind of guesstimate of spaceweather earth-impact timing

CME earthquakes appear to happen 2-4 days after the CME

Two big CMEs happened in January 2012: Sunspots "burst" and the energy whirled into space. CME spiral around the Sun and sometimes hit the earth. These last two did not make full contact with the earth. But a large earthquake did occur; Magnitude 6.3 near the coast of North Peru. January 30, 2012.
CME earthquakes appear to happen 2-4 days after the CME: This depends on the speed of the Solar wind, the angle of the Earth and the direction of the flare.
When to watch for spaceweather: The 11 - year cycle of the Sun created space weather action peaks; for example 1990-1991, and 2000-2001, and, now, 2011, 2012, 2013. We are in the middle of one Sunspot peak period, now.

Bursts of energy from the Sun create the aurora borealis and aurora australis

The pretty parts: (Northern and Southern Lights) are caused by the influence of CMEs with the magnetic field surrounding the Earth.
Bursts of energy from the Sun - called coronal mass ejections (CME) flow on the solar wind and along magnetic fields.

Super-hot electrons (electricity) follow the magnetic field lines.

The magnetic field changes faster ahead of the solar wind.
Wobbles ripple the magnetic field; called a “shock” . The shock can travel 1000 km/second (2 million mph) head of the CME loop. The energy of such shocks form the biggest "explosions" in the solar system, The power of one billiion hydrogen bombs. The Fast CMEs occur more often near the peak of the 11-year solar cycle.
The ones to watch out for: A "halo" event is one where the CME is headed in the direction of Earth. The "geo-effectiveness of the CME means the risk of Eearhn impact. "
How to look for CMEs: The Sun rotates around every 27 days. The sunspot rotates with the Sun. Regions can reappear, month after month An unknown triggeer causes a sunspot to send out a CME. So its possible to forecast repeated cycles of the sunspots, in the sunspot season. but not when a CME will form,, or if that CME may impact the Earth. As not all do. For example two large CMEs in January 2012 created auroras, but most of the energy “missed” the Earth.

Watch the magnetic wobbles after a CME: Source Surface Field in MicroTesla

This has semiannual variation with minima near the solstices when the solar wind sees the strongest geomagnetic field. To see the real life wobble of the magnetic field after a CMI go to the link below.
This has semiannual variation with minima near the solstices when the solar wind sees the strongest geomagnetic field. To see the real life wobble of the magnetic field after a CMI go to the link below.

Spaceweather forecasts use magnetograms

How to check for CMEs as part of spaceweather forecasts: One way to to it - watch magnetograms.
The Coriolis satellite for example, circles Earth in a roughly polar orbit at an altitude of 840 km. It has widgets made detect and forecast the arrival of CMEs
In each 102 minute orbit, the fields of view of the combined cameras sweep over almost the entire sky. This collects data from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)
Animation of the magnetic field of the solar corona: Potential Field Source Surface Models show solar coronal magnetic fields based on “observed photospheric fields” (magnetograms).
Calculates the magnetic field changes: The Potential Field Surface Model calculates the magnetic field of the solar corona using observations of the magnetic field at the sun's surface. For example, this code was written by Janet Luhmann. See the nice wobble result above in the link below the caption.

  1. The model calculates:
  2. magnetic field of the corona;
  3. from the radius of the sun;
  4. to the source surface radius; (the Earth)
  5. assuming no currents in this region.


Satellite telescopes track the magnetic flow

Three CCD cameras: SMEI was designed to detect and forecast the arrival of CMEs and other heliospheric structures moving toward and passing by Earth; it consists of three CCD cameras, each viewing a band of sky.
The December 26 effect: The solar wind sees the strongest geomagnetic field at the time of the Northern ( approx December 21 ) and Southern Solstice. (approx 20 June). "This is a Universal Time effect [not a day/night effect] that happens because the magnetic poles are tipped towards the Sun at specific times

  1. 16:30 Greenwich Mean Time=UT for the Northern pole and
  2. 4:30 for the Southern Pole.

Same Aurora, but viewed from the Space Station

Summary concept video; explains new science on Sun to Earth flows

The new science of heliophysics

Heliophysics: Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos
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Heliophysics: Space Storms and Radiation: Causes and Effects
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Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth
Amazon Price: $44.62
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